The National Electricity Market
Wholesale electricity prices increased significantly in all NEM States in October. NSW increased the most, up 96% to $128. QLD rose 65% to $94 while TAS increased 58% to $62. VIC and SA increased the least, up 44% and 32% respectively. Average prices ranged from $50 in SA to $128 in NSW.
Electricity Generation Mix
Total grid-scale generation in October increased by 2% compared with September. However, after adjusting for the additional day in October, average daily generation declined slightly, indicating a modest reduction in operational demand.
Coal and hydro increased significantly, while wind, gas and solar generation all fell.
Gas Generation
Gas generation decreased again in October – down another 6% compared to September. Compared with October 2025, gas generation was 30% lower.
Gas generation was down in most states apart from NSW (up 140%) and SA (up 14%). TAS was down 90%, VIC was down 55% and QLD was down 17%.
Hydro Generation
Hydro generation rebounded in October but remained near the lowest level recorded at this time of year during the past 11 years, as shown below.
Storage in Hydro Tasmania’s lakes decreased slightly through October. Storage ended the month at 7,197GWh (50% full), a fall of 90GWh over the month. This is 2% lower than the level recorded at the same time last year and now well below the maximum level seen at this time of year in the last 11 years, as shown in the following chart.
Snowy Hydro’s storage also decreased through October. Snowy finished the month 45% full, with storage of 2,412 GL, a 0.6% decrease over the month. Levels remain close to the 11-year average for this time of year as shown in the following chart.
Climate outlook overview (from BOM)
The long-range forecast for November to January shows:
- Rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of western, central and eastern Australia, below average in parts of the far north and south-east.
- Daytime temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.
- Overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.
New Renewable Generation (Excluding Hydro)
Total renewable generation from wind and solar, including rooftop solar, was 7,902 GWh in October, down 2% from September but marginally higher than in October 2025. Wind generation was down 10% from September and 7% below October 2025. Utility-scale solar generation decreased by 3% from September but was 4% higher than in October 2025.
The following chart shows the monthly energy produced for each of these renewable types since 2017.
The Electricity Futures Market
Futures prices generally increased across the NEM during October, with gains recorded across most calendar-year contracts.
In NSW CAL27 was up 10% at $105. CAL28 was also up 4% at $101, while CAL29 was up 2%, ending the month at $105. CAL30 started trading this month, ending the month at $108
Calendar Year Contracts for New South Wales
QLD prices in CAL27 were up 6.5% at $87 while CAL28 was down 1% ($83). CAL29 ended the month down 2% at $88.5. CAL30 debuted at $94.
Calendar Year Contracts for Queensland
VIC futures prices for CAL27 increased 6% to $75, while CAL28 was also up 1.5% at $81. CAL29 ended the month down 1.5% at $88. CAL30 ended the month at $99.
Calendar Year Contracts for Victoria
SA has less liquidity in the futures markets than other States, so changes tend to be lumpier and less a true reflection of the underlying market. For completeness, we have included the graph below.
Calendar Year Contracts for South Australia
The Gas Market
International LNG netback prices have increased because of the conflict in the Middle East. Prices in October increased another 8% to $32.59/GJ. Forecast average prices are currently $22.83/GJ for 2026 and $33.59/GJ for 2027. (Note that netback prices are indicative of international prices, they are produced by the ACCC and quoted in Australian dollars. They are net of the estimated cost of converting pipeline gas in Australia to LNG, hence the term ‘netback’)
Domestic spot gas prices increased in October. The following graph shows the 30-day rolling average price at the Wallumbilla Gas Supply Hub, which ended the month at $11.70/GJ, up 7.4% from September’s levels. This remains well below the LNG netback price. Prices are 12% below what they were the same time last year.
Gas storage at the key Iona storage facility dropped during October. Storage decreased to 11.6PJ – a 13% fall over the month. Storage is now well below the average level we have seen at this time of year for the past nine years.
LPG is an important fuel for many large energy users, particularly in areas where reticulated natural gas is not available. The contract price of LPG is typically set by international benchmarks such as the Saudi Aramco LPG prices, which are normally quoted in US dollars per metric tonne.
The following graph shows the Saudi Aramco LPG prices for the last five years as well as forecast pricing for the year and a half ahead. The conflict in the Middle East caused prices to spike from April to June but they fell steeply in July before rising again recently. Futures prices increased through October.
The other main contributing factor to LPG prices in Australia is the exchange rate against the USD. The AUD/USD exchange rate was around 0.69 at the start of the month and increased steadily to end at 0.70. This remains above the average levels seen in recent years. The recent increase in the exchange rate would tend to decrease LPG prices when expressed in Australian dollars.
The Coal Market
The conflict in the Middle East has contributed to an increase in coal prices along with other international energy commodities. To date the impact has not been as great as that observed during the initial years of the Ukraine war. Prices remained relatively flat for most of October and ended the month at $150/tonne. The following graph shows prices over the past ten years.
International coal prices continue to be an important driver of electricity prices, especially in the states most reliant on black coal generation, namely Queensland and New South Wales.
Environmental Certificates
The following graph shows environmental certificate spot prices over the last 6 years.
Certificate prices fell across the board in October, with the exception of STCs, which were unchanged at $39.65. VEECs were down 7% at $80.4, Spot LGCs down 4% at $7.35, and ESCs down 3% at $28.5. ACCUs were down 1% at $38.15.
Over recent months, future-dated LGC prices have increased from historically low levels. Prices for all future years currently sit within a narrow band of $7.00 to $7.75 per certificate and are down by 0-9% from last month.
About this Report
This energy market summary report provides information on wholesale price trends for all regions within the National Electricity Market (NEM) and environmental scheme certificates.
Please note that all electricity prices are presented as a $ per MWh price and all certificate prices as a $ per certificate price.
All NEM spot prices are published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Futures contract prices are sourced from ASX.
Further information can be found at the locations noted below.
- NEM Spot market – AEMO publishes a range of detailed information which can be found here: https://aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard
- Weather and Climate data – The Bureau of Meteorology publishes a range of weather related information which can be found here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared for information and explanatory purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon by any person. This document does not form part of any existing or future contract or agreement between us. We make no representation, assurance or guarantee as to the accuracy of information provided. To the maximum extent permitted by law, none of Smart Power Utilities Ltd, its related companies, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising out or, or in connection with it. You must not provide this document or any information contained in it to any third party without our prior consent.
© Copyright, 2026. Smart Power Utilities Ltd ABN 72 121 464 864
