The National Electricity Market
Wholesale electricity prices in October were close to the low levels seen in all States across the NEM the previous month. Price changes ranged from -14% in TAS up to an 8% increase in NSW. Average prices ranged from the $24.5 in TAS, up to $77 in NSW.
Electricity Generation Mix
Total grid-scale generation for October increased by 1.4% from September levels – taking into account that there is an additional day in October, this was a small reduction in operational demand, likely due to an increase in roof-top solar generation.
Gas and Wind generation decreased while Solar had a large increase compared to the previous month.
Gas Generation
Gas generation decreased in October – down 4% compared to September. Compared to 12 months ago gas generation was 31% higher than it was in October 2024.
Gas generation was down in all States apart from QLD. VIC was down 21%, NSW 12%, and SA 5%. TAS was down 72% (on very low volumes). QLD bucked the trend, up 8%.
Hydro Generation
Hydro generation increased 3% in October compared to September levels and was close to the average level seen in the last 10-years, for this time of year, as shown below.
Storage in Hydro Tasmania’s lakes continued to increase in October. Storage ended the month at 7,347GWh (51% full), an increase of 524GWh over the month. This is 7% more than the same time last year and up near the maximum level seen at this time of year in the last 10 years, as shown in the following chart.
Snowy Hydro’s storage increased through October. Snowy finished the month 46% of full (2,453Gl) – a 4% increase over the month. Levels remain below the 10-year average for this time of year as shown in the following chart.
Climate outlook overview (from BOM)
The long-range forecast for November to January shows:
- Rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of the east and below average for parts of the north and west.
- Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia except in parts of eastern New South Wales.
- Overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia.
New Renewable Generation (Excluding Hydro)
Total renewable generation (wind and solar, including roof-top solar) in October was 7,882GWh – a new monthly record! This was up 8% from last month’s level, and up 16% on the same month last year. Wind generation was down 6% from last month’s level but was 26% more than October 2024. Utility Scale Solar generation was up 26% from September’s level and 15% over the same month last year.
The following chart shows the monthly energy produced for each of these renewable types since 2017.
The Electricity Futures Market
Futures prices were flat or moved down through October in all States, across every calendar year.
In NSW CAL26 was down 2% at $116, while CAL27 was flat at 114.5. CAL28 was down 1.4% at $113.5. CAL29 started being quoted at the beginning of October, ending the month at $113, down 4%
Calendar Year Contracts for New South Wales
QLD prices in CY 2026 were down 3% at $100. CAL27 was also down 2.5% ($96) and CAL28 was down 1% ($93). CAL29 ended the month flat at $92.
Calendar Year Contracts for Queensland
VIC futures prices for CAL26 decreased 0.3% at $80, CAL27 was up 0.75% at $76, while CAL28 was also up 0.75% at $78.5. CAL29 started at $83 and remained close to that price.
Calendar Year Contracts for Victoria
SA has less liquidity in the futures markets than other States, so changes tend to be lumpier and less a true reflection of the underlying market. For completeness we have included the graph below.
Calendar Year Contracts for South Australia
The Gas Market
Internationally, LNG netback prices ended the month at $14.42/GJ – down 4% from last month. Forecast prices for 2025 were steady at $16.98/GJ. Forward prices for 2026 were down 4% at $13.78/GJ. (Note that netback prices are indicative of international prices – they are produced by the ACCC and quoted in Australian dollars. They are net of the estimated costs to convert from pipeline gas in Australia to LNG, hence the term “netback”)
Domestic spot gas prices increased in October. The following graph shows the 30-day rolling average price at Wallumbilla gas supply hub – ending the month at $13.2/GJ, up 10% from September levels. This is still below the LNG netback price. Prices are at the same level as they were the same time last year.
Gas storage at the key Iona storage facility dropped slightly through October. Storage decreased to 11.6PJ – a 2% fall over the month. Storage remains near the lowest levels we have seen at this time of year for the past 9 years.
LPG is an important fuel for many large energy users, particularly in areas where reticulated natural gas is not available. The contract price of LPG is typically set by international benchmarks such as the Saudi Aramco LPG price – normally quoted in US$ per metric tonne.
The following graph shows the Saudi Aramco LPG pricing for the last 4.5 years as well as forecast pricing for the year ahead. Futures pricing were down slightly over the last month and remain trending down through 2026.
The other main contributing factor to LPG prices in Australia is the exchange rate against the USD. The exchange rate fell to 0.65 in October. This remains near the lowest levels seen in recent years. This would tend to push up LPG prices when quoted in AUD.
The Coal Market
The global energy crisis has been as much about coal as it has gas. The war in the Ukraine has driven energy prices, including coal, up. Prices in October increased ending the month at US$109/T – a 4% rise over the month. These prices are finally returning to levels close to what we expect to see as shown in the following graph of prices over the last 10 years.
International coal prices continue to be an important driver of electricity prices especially in the States most reliant on black coal generation – ie QLD and NSW.
Environmental Certificates
The following graph shows environmental certificate spot prices over the last 5.5 years.
VEEC prices slumped in October – down 16% to $78. Spot LGCs continued recent falls – down a further 11% to $9.8. LGCs are now more than 70% below what they were 12 months ago. ESCs levelled off somewhat – down 1% at $25 while STCs were again unchanged. ACCUs were up 3% to $38.5.
Future dated LGC prices decreased again in all years. CAL25 was down 9% at $10.25, while CAL26 decreased by 19% to $9.53. CAL27 fell by 13% to $8 and CAL28 fell 5% to $6. CAL29 also decreased by 5% to $5.8.
About this Report
This energy market summary report provides information on wholesale price trends for all regions within the National Electricity Market (NEM) and environmental scheme certificates.
Please note that all electricity prices are presented as a $ per MWh price and all certificate prices as a $ per certificate price.
All NEM spot prices are published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Futures contract prices are sourced from ASX.
Further information can be found at the locations noted below.
- NEM Spot market – AEMO publishes a range of detailed information which can be found here: https://aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard
- Weather and Climate data – The Bureau of Meteorology publishes a range of weather related information which can be found here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
Disclaimer
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