The National Electricity Market
Wholesale electricity prices in November were close to the low levels seen in all States across the NEM in the last 2 months. Average prices ranged from the $32 in VIC and SA, up to $77 in NSW.
Electricity Generation Mix
Total grid-scale generation for November decreased by 1.4% from October levels – taking into account that there is one less day in November, this was a small underlying increase in operational demand.
Solar generation increased while most other fuel types fell compared to last month.
Gas Generation
Gas generation decreased again in November – down 20% compared to October. Compared to 12 months ago gas generation was 45% lower than it was in November 2024 – the lowest level seen in November in the last 7 years.
Gas generation was down in all States apart from QLD. VIC was down 66%, SA 52%, and NSW 13%. TAS was down 93% (on very low volumes). QLD bucked the trend, up 16%.
Hydro Generation
Hydro generation decreased 13% in November compared to October levels and was below the average level seen in the last 10 years, for this time of year, as shown below.
Storage in Hydro Tasmania’s lakes continued to increase in November. Storage ended the month at 7,656GWh (53% full), an increase of 309GWh over the month. This is 14% more than the same time last year and up above the maximum level seen at this time of year in the last 10 years, as shown in the following chart.
Snowy Hydro’s storage also increased through November. Snowy finished the month 47% of full (2,505Gl) – a 2% increase over the month. Levels remain below the 10-year average for this time of year as shown in the following chart.
Climate outlook overview (from BOM)
The long-range forecast for December to February shows:
- Rainfall is likely to be below average for large areas of Australia and above average in parts of eastern and far northern Queensland.
- Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across most of Australia.
- Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average across most of Australia.
New Renewable Generation (Excluding Hydro)
Total renewable generation (wind and solar, including roof-top solar) in November was 7,991GWh – another new monthly record – beating last month’s record by 1.4%. This was up 22% on the same month last year. Wind generation was down 4% from last month’s level but was 39% more than November 2024. Utility Scale Solar generation was up 9% from October’s level and 16% over the same month last year.
The following chart shows the monthly energy produced for each of these renewable types since 2017.
The Electricity Futures Market
Futures prices largely moved down or were flat through November in all States, across every calendar year.
In NSW CAL26 was down 6% at $109.5, while CAL27 was down 5% at 109. CAL28 was down 2% at $111, while CAL29 was also down 1% ending the month at $112.
Calendar Year Contracts for New South Wales
QLD prices in CY 2026 were down 10% at $91. CAL27 was also down 7% ($89) and CAL28 was down 4% ($89). CAL29 ended the month down 2% at $91.
Calendar Year Contracts for Queensland
VIC futures prices for CAL26 decreased 5% at $76, CAL27 was down 1.5% at $75, while CAL28 was up 0.5% at $79. CAL29 ended the month up 1.6% at $84.
Calendar Year Contracts for Victoria
SA has less liquidity in the futures markets than other States, so changes tend to be lumpier and less a true reflection of the underlying market. For completeness we have included the graph below.
Calendar Year Contracts for South Australia
The Gas Market
Internationally, LNG netback prices ended the month at $14.64/GJ – up 1.5% from last month. Forecast prices for 2025 were steady at $16.88/GJ. Forward prices for 2026 were down 5% at $13.14/GJ. (Note that netback prices are indicative of international prices – they are produced by the ACCC and quoted in Australian dollars. They are net of the estimated costs to convert from pipeline gas in Australia to LNG, hence the term “netback”)
Domestic spot gas prices were flat in November. The following graph shows the 30-day rolling average price at Wallumbilla gas supply hub – ending the month at $13.1/GJ, down 1% from October levels. This is still below the LNG netback price. Prices are 6% below what they were the same time last year.
Gas storage at the key Iona storage facility increased through November. Storage increased to 12.8PJ – a 10% rise over the month. Storage remains below the average levels we have seen at this time of year for the past 9 years.
LPG is an important fuel for many large energy users, particularly in areas where reticulated natural gas is not available. The contract price of LPG is typically set by international benchmarks such as the Saudi Aramco LPG price – normally quoted in US$ per metric tonne.
The following graph shows the Saudi Aramco LPG pricing for the last 5 years as well as forecast pricing for the year ahead. Futures pricing were up slightly over the last month but remain trending down through 2026.
The other main contributing factor to LPG prices in Australia is the exchange rate against the USD. The exchange rate fell through the first of the month reaching as low as 0.645 before climbing closing at 0.655. This remains near the lowest levels seen in recent years. This would tend to push up LPG prices when quoted in AUD.
The Coal Market
The global energy crisis has been as much about coal as it has gas. The war in the Ukraine has driven energy prices, including coal, up. Prices in November were steady at around the $109 - $110 / tonne. These prices are finally returning to levels close to what we expect to see as shown in the following graph of prices over the last 10 years
International coal prices continue to be an important driver of electricity prices especially in the States most reliant on black coal generation – ie QLD and NSW.
Environmental Certificates
The following graph shows environmental certificate spot prices over the last 5.5 years.
VEEC prices rebounded a little in November – up 6% to $83. Spot LGCs continued recent falls – down a further 25% to $7.35. ESCs dropped 7% to $23.5 while ACCUs were also down 7% at $35.75. STCs were again unchanged.
Future dated LGC prices decreased again in all years. CAL25 was down 29% at $7.25, while CAL26 decreased by 21% to $7.5. CAL27 fell by 19% to $6.5 and CAL28 fell 9% to $5.5. CAL29 also decreased by 23% to $4.5
About this Report
This energy market summary report provides information on wholesale price trends for all regions within the National Electricity Market (NEM) and environmental scheme certificates.
Please note that all electricity prices are presented as a $ per MWh price and all certificate prices as a $ per certificate price.
All NEM spot prices are published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Futures contract prices are sourced from ASX.
Further information can be found at the locations noted below.
- NEM Spot market – AEMO publishes a range of detailed information which can be found here: https://aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard
- Weather and Climate data – The Bureau of Meteorology publishes a range of weather related information which can be found here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
Disclaimer
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