The National Electricity Market
Wholesale electricity prices decreased or were flat in all NEM States in March. NSW fell the most, down 16% to $70 while QLD also fell to $63, down 10%. Average prices ranged from $45 in VIC (down 1%) up to $91 in TAS (up 1%).
Electricity Generation Mix
Total grid-scale generation for March increased by 5.8% from February levels – factoring in the increased days in March this implies a significant decrease in operational demand as we move into the traditionally lower demand, shoulder season.
Wind and Solar generation both decreased while Coal, Gas and Hydro generation all had notable increases compared to last month.
Gas Generation
Gas generation increased in March – up 10% compared to February. Compared to 12 months ago gas generation was 14% lower than it was in March 2025 – the lowest level seen in March in the last 7 years.
Gas generation was up in all States apart from NSW (down 48%) and TAS which again used no gas. VIC was up 86% while SA was up 27% and QLD 10%.
Hydro Generation
Hydro generation increased 8% in March compared to February levels and was slightly above the average level seen in the last 11 years, for this time of year, as shown below.
Storage in Hydro Tasmania’s lakes continued to decline through March. Storage ended the month at 6,135GWh (42% full), a decrease of 480GWh over the month. This is 10% more than the same time last year and above the maximum level seen at this time of year in the last 11 years, as shown in the following chart.
Snowy Hydro’s storage also decreased through March. Snowy finished the month 43% of full (2,282Gl) – a 2% decrease over the month. Levels remain below the 11-year average for this time of year as shown in the following chart.
Climate outlook overview (from BOM)
The long-range forecast for April to June shows:
- Rainfall is likely to be below average for most of Australia, and above average over parts of the tropical north.
- Daytime temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia but below average in parts of the tropical north.
- Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for much of Australia.
New Renewable Generation (Excluding Hydro)
Total renewable generation (wind and solar, including roof-top solar) in March was 6,809GWh – a drop of 7% from last month’s level and only 4% above the same month last year. Wind generation was down 9% from last month’s level and 7% below March 2025. Utility Scale Solar generation was down 3% from February’s level but up 16% over the same month last year.
The following chart shows the monthly energy produced for each of these renewable types since 2017.
The Electricity Futures Market
Futures prices increased in all States through March, across every calendar year.
In NSW CAL26 was up 10% at $103, while CAL27 was up 14% at $111. CAL28 was up 13.5% at $108, while CAL29 was up 8.5% ending the month at $104.
Calendar Year Contracts for New South Wales
QLD prices in CY 2026 were up 10% at $83. CAL27 was up 13% ($91) and CAL28 was up 12% ($88). CAL29 ended the month also up 7% at $84.
Calendar Year Contracts for Queensland
VIC futures prices for CAL26 were up 8% at $72, CAL27 was up 8.5% at $79, while CAL28 was up 6% at $80.5. CAL29 ended the month up 7% at $85.5.
Calendar Year Contracts for Victoria
SA has less liquidity in the futures markets than other States, so changes tend to be lumpier and less a true reflection of the underlying market. For completeness we have included the graph below.
Calendar Year Contracts for South Australia
The Gas Market
Internationally, LNG netback prices surged on the conflict in the middle east. Prices in March jumped 42% to $19.23/GJ. Forecast prices were up 60% at $21.09/GJ for 2026 and 62% at $19.32 for 2027. (Note that netback prices are indicative of international prices – they are produced by the ACCC and quoted in Australian dollars. They are net of the estimated costs to convert from pipeline gas in Australia to LNG, hence the term “netback”)
Domestic spot gas prices fell again in March. The following graph shows the 30-day rolling average price at Wallumbilla gas supply hub – ending the month at $9.4/GJ, down 17% from February levels. This is now well below the LNG netback price. Prices are 32% below what they were the same time last year.
Gas storage at the key Iona storage facility increased through March. Storage increased to 23.5PJ – a 16% rise over the month. Storage is now close to the maximum levels we have seen at this time of year for the past 9 years.
LPG is an important fuel for many large energy users, particularly in areas where reticulated natural gas is not available. The contract price of LPG is typically set by international benchmarks such as the Saudi Aramco LPG price – normally quoted in US$ per metric tonne.
The following graph shows the Saudi Aramco LPG pricing for the last 5 years as well as forecast pricing for the year ahead. The war in the middle east has resulted in a large increase in Futures pricing over the last month.
The other main contributing factor to LPG prices in Australia is the exchange rate against the USD. The exchange rate fell through the month closing at below 0.69. This remains higher than we have seen in recent years. This would tend to push down LPG prices when quoted in AUD.
The Coal Market
The conflict in the middle east has resulted in coal prices increasing along with other international energy commodities. To date the impact has not been as great as that observed during the initial years of the Ukraine war. Prices in March jumped, ending the month at $140/tonne – up 18% as shown in the following graph of prices over the last 10 years.
International coal prices continue to be an important driver of electricity prices especially in the States most reliant on black coal generation – ie QLD and NSW.
Environmental Certificates
The following graph shows environmental certificate spot prices over the last 5.5 years.
VEEC prices increased a little in March – up 2% to $84. Spot LGCs continued recent falls – down a further 28% to $2.9. ESCs increased 6% to $24 while STCs were also up 1% at $39.6. ACCUs fell 1% to $36.25.
Future dated LGC prices decreased again in all years. CAL26 and CAL27 fell to $3.25, CAL28 and CAL29 to $3, and CAL 30 also decreased to $2.75.
About this Report
This energy market summary report provides information on wholesale price trends for all regions within the National Electricity Market (NEM) and environmental scheme certificates.
Please note that all electricity prices are presented as a $ per MWh price and all certificate prices as a $ per certificate price.
All NEM spot prices are published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Futures contract prices are sourced from ASX.
Further information can be found at the locations noted below.
- NEM Spot market – AEMO publishes a range of detailed information which can be found here: https://aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard
- Weather and Climate data – The Bureau of Meteorology publishes a range of weather related information which can be found here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
Disclaimer
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