The National Electricity Market
Wholesale electricity prices in June spiked upward with some coal fired unit outages coinciding with a lack of wind at times driving volatility across the NEM. No State was immune with average prices increasing by 77% in QLD up to 239% in VIC. Average prices were around $250/MWh in most States. though QLD was much lower averaging $170/MWh.
Electricity Generation Mix
Total grid-scale generation for June increased by 9% from May levels – a significant increase in operational demand given there is one less day in June.
Gas, Wind and Hydro generation all increased significantly. Solar generation was the only generation type to fall significantly compared to the previous month.
Gas Generation
Gas generation increased significantly in June – up 58% compared to May. Compared to 12 months ago gas generation was 8% lower than it was in June 2024 and, interestingly with all the negative commentary, it was lower than 3 of the last 4 years.
Gas generation was up in all States but particularly VIC which increased 281%. NSW rose 61%, SA 41%, and TAS 15% (on low numbers). QLD had the smallest increase at 10%.
Hydro Generation
Hydro generation increased 10% in June compared to May levels, well below the average levels seen in the last 10-years, for this time of year, as shown below.
Storage in Hydro Tasmania’s lakes continued to fall through June. Storage ended the month at 4,857GWh (33.5% full), a decrease of 115GWh over the month. This is 7% more than the same time last year but has fallen below the average level seen at this time of year in the last 10 years, as shown in the following chart.
Snowy Hydro’s storage also fell during June. Snowy finished the month 35% of full (1,869Gl) – a 6.6% decrease over the month. Levels are now well below the 10-year average for this time of year as shown in the following chart.
Climate outlook overview (from BOM)
The long-range forecast for July to September shows:
- Rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of the interior and east, with roughly equal chances of being above, below or near-average for western and south-eastern Australia.
- Warmer than average days are likely across Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures in parts of the far north, west and south-east.
- Warmer than average nights are likely to very likely across much of Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures.
New Renewable Generation (Excluding Hydro)
Total renewable generation (wind and solar, including roof-top solar) in June was 5,407GWh – down 1% from last month’s level, but up 32% on the same month last year. Utility Scale Solar generation was down 14% from May’s levels but up 16% over the same month last year. Wind generation increased 12% from last month and was up 49% compared to June 2024.
The following chart shows the monthly energy produced for each of these renewable types since 2017.
The Electricity Futures Market
Futures prices increased through June in all States, across every calendar year, especially for 2026.
In NSW CAL26 was up 4% at $121, while CAL27 was up 2% ($116) and CAL28 up 0.5% ($115).
Calendar Year Contracts for New South Wales
QLD prices followed a similar pattern to NSW. CY 2026 was up 4.5% at $104. CAL27 was up 3.5% ($97) and CAL 28 was up 2% ($91).
Calendar Year Contracts for Queensland
VIC futures prices for CAL26 were up 8% at $82, CAL27 was up 3% at $76, while CAL28 was up 1% at $76.
Calendar Year Contracts for Victoria
SA has less liquidity in the futures markets than other States, so changes tend to be lumpier and less a true reflection of the underlying market. For completeness we have included the graph below.
Calendar Year Contracts for South Australia
The Gas Market
Internationally, LNG netback prices ended the month at $16.64/GJ – up 9% from last month. Forecast prices for 2025 were up 1% at $17.49/GJ. Forward prices for 2026 were also up 3% at $16.15/GJ. (Note that netback prices are indicative of international prices – they are produced by the ACCC and quoted in Australian dollars. They are net of the estimated costs to convert from pipeline gas in Australia to LNG, hence the term “netback”)
Domestic spot gas prices rebounded in June. The following graph shows the 30-day rolling average price at Wallumbilla gas supply hub – ending the month at $13.2/GJ, up 24% from May levels. This is still well below the LNG netback price. Prices are still 15% below what they were the same time last year.
Gas storage at the key Iona storage facility plunged through June with increased demand particularly from the gas generation sector in VIC. Storage decreased to 17PJ – a 28% fall over the month. Storage is now close to the average levels we have seen at this time of year for the past 9 years.
LPG is an important fuel for many large energy users, particularly in areas where reticulated natural gas is not available. The contract price of LPG is typically set by international benchmarks such as the Saudi Aramco LPG price – normally quoted in US$ per metric tonne.
The following graph shows the Saudi Aramco LPG pricing for the last 4 years as well as forecast pricing for the year ahead. Futures pricing were up over the last month but remain trending down through 2026.
The other main contributing factor to LPG prices in Australia is the exchange rate against the USD. The exchange rate hovered around 0.65 for much of June, dropping to 0.645 in the middle of the month before increasing, closing at its monthly high of 0.66. This remains near the lowest levels seen in recent years. This would tend to push up LPG prices when quoted in AUD.
The Coal Market
The global energy crisis has been as much about coal as it has gas. The war in the Ukraine has driven energy prices, including coal, up. Prices in June increased ending the month at US$109/T – a 6% rise over the month. These prices are finally returning to levels close to what we expect to see as shown in the following graph of prices over the last 10 years.
International coal prices continue to be an important driver of electricity prices especially in the States most reliant on black coal generation – ie QLD and NSW.
Environmental Certificates
The following graph shows environmental certificate spot prices over the last 5 years.
VEECs rebounded somewhat from the falls of recent months, increasing 10% to $94 in June. ESCs continued recent gains, up 20% to $20.75 – their highest level in over a year. ACCUs and STCs were flat at $35.5 and $39.9 respectively, while Spot LGCs fell 18% to $16.5.
After the small blip up in prices last month, future dated LGC prices returned to the steep downward trend observed over several months. CAL25 was down 23% at $16, while CAL26 decreased by 17% to $16. CAL27 fell by 9% to $13 while CAL28 also dropped 7% to $10. CAL29 bucked the trend increasing 12% to $9.25.
About this Report
This energy market summary report provides information on wholesale price trends for all regions within the National Electricity Market (NEM) and environmental scheme certificates.
Please note that all electricity prices are presented as a $ per MWh price and all certificate prices as a $ per certificate price.
All NEM spot prices are published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Futures contract prices are sourced from ASX.
Further information can be found at the locations noted below.
- NEM Spot market – AEMO publishes a range of detailed information which can be found here: https://aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard
- Weather and Climate data – The Bureau of Meteorology publishes a range of weather related information which can be found here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared for information and explanatory purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon by any person. This document does not form part of any existing or future contract or agreement between us. We make no representation, assurance or guarantee as to the accuracy of information provided. To the maximum extent permitted by law, none of Smart Power Utilities Ltd, its related companies, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising out or, or in connection with it. You must not provide this document or any information contained in it to any third party without our prior consent.
© Copyright, 2025. Smart Power Utilities Ltd ABN 72 121 464 864
