The National Electricity Market
Wholesale electricity prices decreased in all NEM States in July apart from VIC which increased by 5%. SA fell the most, down 24% to $96 falling from June’s high levels. TAS and QLD both fell 8% to $71 and $65 respectively. Average prices ranged from $65 in QLD up to $96 in SA.
Electricity Generation Mix
Total grid-scale generation for July increased by 7.6% from June levels – factoring in the increased days in July this translates into a small increase in operational demand.
Gas generation had a significant fall while Solar and Coal generation both had notable increases compared to last month.
Gas Generation
Gas generation decreased in July – down 24% compared to June. Compared to 12 months ago gas generation was 22% lower than it was in July 2025.
Gas generation was down in all States apart from SA (up 21%) and TAS which was up significantly from minimal levels. NSW was down 71% while QLD was down 52% and VIC 24%.
Hydro Generation
Hydro generation was flat in July compared to June levels and remained close to the average level seen in the last 11 years, for this time of year, as shown below.
Storage in Hydro Tasmania’s lakes increased significantly through July. Storage ended the month at 6,856GWh (47% full), an increase of 802GWh over the month. This is 28% more than the same time last year and close to the maximum level seen at this time of year in the last 11 years, as shown in the following chart.
Snowy Hydro’s storage increased slightly through July. Snowy finished the month 41% of full (2,154Gl) – a 1% increase over the month. Levels remain close to the 11-year average for this time of year as shown in the following chart.
Climate outlook overview (from BOM)
The long-range forecast for August to October shows:
- Rainfall is likely to be below average across the south-west and much of the east, and above average for the north-west.
- Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average south of the tropics.
- Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average for most of Australia.
New Renewable Generation (Excluding Hydro)
Total renewable generation (wind and solar, including roof-top solar) in July was 6,634GWh – a jump of 11% from last month’s level, but only 3% above the same month last year. Wind generation was down 2% from last month’s level and 11% below July 2025. Utility Scale Solar generation was up 33% from June’s level and up 27% over the same month last year.
The following chart shows the monthly energy produced for each of these renewable types since 2017.
The Electricity Futures Market
Futures prices were relatively flat through July in all States, across every calendar year apart from CY2029 where there were increases of close to 3%.
In NSW CAL27 was up 1% at $84. CAL28 was also up 1% at $88, while CAL29 was up 3% ending the month at $99.
Calendar Year Contracts for New South Wales
QLD prices in CAL27 were up 1.5% at $74 while CAL28 was also up 1.5% ($74)). CAL29 ended the month up 4% at $80.
Calendar Year Contracts for Queensland
VIC futures prices for CAL27 were down 1% at $64, while CAL28 was down 1.5% at $74. CAL29 ended the month up 3% at $86.
Calendar Year Contracts for Victoria
SA has less liquidity in the futures markets than other States, so changes tend to be lumpier and less a true reflection of the underlying market. For completeness we have included the graph below.
Calendar Year Contracts for South Australia
The Gas Market
Internationally, LNG netback prices have increased on the conflict in the middle east. Prices in July reduced 9% to $20.47/GJ. Forecast average prices for 2026 are currently $20.51/GJ and $18 for 2027. (Note that netback prices are indicative of international prices – they are produced by the ACCC and quoted in Australian dollars. They are net of the estimated costs to convert from pipeline gas in Australia to LNG, hence the term “netback”)
Domestic spot gas prices increased in July. The following graph shows the 30-day rolling average price at Wallumbilla gas supply hub – ending the month at $10.8/GJ, up 34% from June levels. This remains well below the LNG netback price. Prices are 16% below what they were the same time last year
Gas storage at the key Iona storage facility decreased rapidly through July. Storage decreased to 15.3PJ – a 31% fall over the month. Storage is now just above the average level we have seen at this time of year for the past 9 years.
LPG is an important fuel for many large energy users, particularly in areas where reticulated natural gas is not available. The contract price of LPG is typically set by international benchmarks such as the Saudi Aramco LPG price – normally quoted in US$ per metric tonne.
The following graph shows the Saudi Aramco LPG pricing for the last 5 years as well as forecast pricing for the year and a half ahead. The war in the middle east caused prices to spike in Apr – Jun but they fell steeply in July and futures prices have dropped over the last couple of months.
The other main contributing factor to LPG prices in Australia is the exchange rate against the USD. The exchange rate increased through the month closing at 0.70. This remains higher than we have seen in recent years and would tend to push down LPG prices when quoted in AUD.
The Coal Market
The conflict in the middle east has resulted in coal prices increasing along with other international energy commodities. To date the impact has not been as great as that observed during the initial years of the Ukraine war. Prices in June were flat for most of the month, ending the month at $133/tonne – up 2% as shown in the following graph of prices over the last 10 years.
International coal prices continue to be an important driver of electricity prices especially in the States most reliant on black coal generation – ie QLD and NSW.
Environmental Certificates
The following graph shows environmental certificate spot prices over the last 6 years.
VEEC prices increased in July – up 2% to $83. Spot LGCs were up marginally at $7.1 as were ACCUs – up 1% at $38.25. ESCs and STCs were unchanged at $29 and $39.9 respectively.
Over recent months future dated LGC prices bumped up from historically low levels. Prices for all future years currently sit in a narrow band between $6 and $7 a certificate
About this Report
This energy market summary report provides information on wholesale price trends for all regions within the National Electricity Market (NEM) and environmental scheme certificates.
Please note that all electricity prices are presented as a $ per MWh price and all certificate prices as a $ per certificate price.
All NEM spot prices are published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Futures contract prices are sourced from ASX.
Further information can be found at the locations noted below.
- NEM Spot market – AEMO publishes a range of detailed information which can be found here: https://aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard
- Weather and Climate data – The Bureau of Meteorology publishes a range of weather related information which can be found here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
Disclaimer
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