The National Electricity Market
Wholesale electricity prices in January were significantly above December levels in all States apart from NSW. A couple of extended high price events in SA resulted in average pricing being $152/MWh – 445% above the average Dec price ($28). Generally speaking, these high price events in other States occurred less than we would typically see in January, meaning that average prices were generally lower than we expected to see this time of year in those States. Average prices ranged from the $38.5 in VIC up to $152 in SA.
Electricity Generation Mix
Total grid-scale generation for December increased by 6.1% from December levels – a significant increase in operational demand.
Coal, Wind and Solar generation all increased while Gas generation had a notable fall compared to last month.
Gas Generation
Gas generation decreased in January – down 10% compared to December. Compared to 12 months ago gas generation was 27% lower than it was in January 2025 – the lowest level seen in January in the last 7 years.
Gas generation was down in NSW and QLD but increased in other States. NSW was down 41% while QLD was down 16%. SA was up 30% while VIC was up 5%. TAS was up over 1500% (on very low volumes).
Hydro Generation
Hydro generation increased 3% in January compared to December levels and was slightly below the average level seen in the last 11 years, for this time of year, as shown below.
Storage in Hydro Tasmania’s lakes declined through January. Storage ended the month at 7,152GWh (50% full), a decrease of 553GWh over the month. This is 11% more than the same time last year and above the maximum level seen at this time of year in the last 11 years, as shown in the following chart.
Snowy Hydro’s storage also decreased through January. Snowy finished the month 46% of full (2,436Gl) – a 2% decrease over the month. Levels remain below the 11-year average for this time of year as shown in the following chart.
Climate outlook overview (from BOM)
The long-range forecast for February to April shows:
- Rainfall is likely to be below average for parts of central and south-east Australia, and above average in parts of the east. For much of the country, there's no strong signal indicating wetter or drier than average conditions.
- Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across Australia.
- Overnight temperatures are very likely be above average across much of Australia.
New Renewable Generation (Excluding Hydro)
Total renewable generation (wind and solar, including roof-top solar) in January was 8,785GWh – another new monthly record – beating last month’s record by 3%. This was up 17% on the same month last year. Wind generation was up 10% from last month’s level and was 24% more than January 2025. Utility Scale Solar generation was up 5% from December’s level and 16% over the same month last year.
The following chart shows the monthly energy produced for each of these renewable types since 2017.
The Electricity Futures Market
Futures prices moved down through January in all States, across every calendar year.
In NSW CAL26 was down 13.5% at $91, while CAL27 was down 8% at 95. CAL28 was also down 8% at $94.5, while CAL29 was down 5% ending the month at $98.
Calendar Year Contracts for New South Wales
QLD prices in CY 2026 were down 9% at $75. CAL27 was down 5% ($81) and CAL28 was down 6% ($80). CAL29 ended the month also down 6% at $80.
Calendar Year Contracts for Queensland
VIC futures prices for CAL26 decreased 12% at $65, CAL27 was down 4% at $72, while CAL28 was also down 4% at $75. CAL29 ended the month down 4% at $80.
Calendar Year Contracts for Victoria
SA has less liquidity in the futures markets than other States, so changes tend to be lumpier and less a true reflection of the underlying market. For completeness we have included the graph below.
Calendar Year Contracts for South Australia
The Gas Market
Internationally, LNG netback prices ended the month at $12/GJ – down 11% from last month. Forecast prices for 2026 were $13.68/GJ and $12.3/GJ for 2027. (Note that netback prices are indicative of international prices – they are produced by the ACCC and quoted in Australian dollars. They are net of the estimated costs to convert from pipeline gas in Australia to LNG, hence the term “netback”)
Domestic spot gas prices fell in January. The following graph shows the 30-day rolling average price at Wallumbilla gas supply hub – ending the month at $11.9/GJ, down 3% from December levels. This is close to the LNG netback price. Prices are 14% below what they were the same time last year.
Gas storage at the key Iona storage facility increased through January. Storage increased to 16.85PJ – a 27% rise over the month. Storage remains below the average levels we have seen at this time of year for the past 9 years.
LPG is an important fuel for many large energy users, particularly in areas where reticulated natural gas is not available. The contract price of LPG is typically set by international benchmarks such as the Saudi Aramco LPG price – normally quoted in US$ per metric tonne.
The following graph shows the Saudi Aramco LPG pricing for the last 5 years as well as forecast pricing for the year ahead. Futures pricing were up over the last month.
The other main contributing factor to LPG prices in Australia is the exchange rate against the USD. The exchange rate was flat through the first half of the month at about 0.67, before climbing closing at 0.7. This is now higher than we have seen in recent years. This would tend to push down LPG prices when quoted in AUD.
The Coal Market
The global energy crisis has been as much about coal as it has gas. The war in the Ukraine has driven energy prices, including coal, up. Prices in January increased ending the month at $116/tonne – up 8%. These prices are finally returning to levels close to what we expect to see as shown in the following graph of prices over the last 10 years.
International coal prices continue to be an important driver of electricity prices especially in the States most reliant on black coal generation – ie QLD and NSW.
Environmental Certificates
The following graph shows environmental certificate spot prices over the last 5.5 years.
VEEC prices rebounded a little in January – up 3% to $81. Spot LGCs continued recent falls – down a further 14% to $5.35. ESCs dropped 1% to $22.85 while STCs were also down 1% at $39.55. ACCUs increased 4% to $38.
Future dated LGC prices decreased again in all years. CAL26 fell to $5.25, CAL27 to $4.8, CAL28 to $4.1, and CAL29 to $3.85. CAL 30 was published for the first time at $3.63.
About this Report
This energy market summary report provides information on wholesale price trends for all regions within the National Electricity Market (NEM) and environmental scheme certificates.
Please note that all electricity prices are presented as a $ per MWh price and all certificate prices as a $ per certificate price.
All NEM spot prices are published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Futures contract prices are sourced from ASX.
Further information can be found at the locations noted below.
- NEM Spot market – AEMO publishes a range of detailed information which can be found here: https://aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard
- Weather and Climate data – The Bureau of Meteorology publishes a range of weather related information which can be found here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared for information and explanatory purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon by any person. This document does not form part of any existing or future contract or agreement between us. We make no representation, assurance or guarantee as to the accuracy of information provided. To the maximum extent permitted by law, none of Smart Power Utilities Ltd, its related companies, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising out or, or in connection with it. You must not provide this document or any information contained in it to any third party without our prior consent.
© Copyright, 2026. Smart Power Utilities Ltd ABN 72 121 464 864
