The National Electricity Market
Wholesale electricity prices in January declined in all States apart from TAS. Low demand over the January shutdown period, and relatively few extreme price events subsequently, kept prices lower than expected for this time of year. NSW prices fell the most with a 38% drop in average price to $83/MWh. QLD fell by 15% to $114/MWh and was the highest priced State. SA and VIC were the lowest priced at $48 – a 15% and 22% decline respectively. TAS was the only State to increase – up 49% at $113 as it tried to conserve hydro storage.

Electricity Generation Mix
Total grid-scale generation for January increased by 2% from December levels. Given that there are extended holiday shutdowns in January, this corresponds to a significant increase in underlying demand for the month.
Wind generation increased as did Coal and Solar. Gas generation was down 25% while Hydro generation fell again - down another 14%.

Gas Generation
Gas generation fell in January – down 25% compared to December. Compared to 12 months ago gas generation was 7% lower than it was in January 2024 – and was the lowest level for January in the last 6 years.
Gas generation was down in all States apart from TAS. VIC gas generation fell 41%, while NSW and QLD dropped by 30%, and SA reduced 5%. TAS increased by 59% on very small numbers.


Hydro Generation
Hydro generation decreased 14% in January compared to December levels, well below the average levels seen in the last 10-years, for this time of year, as shown below.

Storage in Hydro Tasmania’s lakes fell through January. Storage ended the month at 6,434GWh (45% full), a decrease of 432GWh over the month. This is 6% more than the same time last year and close to the highest level seen in the last 10 years, as shown in the following chart.

Snowy Hydro’s storage fell marginally during January. Snowy finished the month 47% of full (2,475Gl) – a 1.3% decrease over the month. Levels are now below the 10-year average for this time of year as shown in the following chart.

Climate outlook overview (from BOM)
The long-range forecast for February to April shows:
- above average rainfall is likely for northern Australia and much of the south, with an increased chance of unusually high rainfall for much of these regions
- warmer than average days are likely across much of southern and eastern Australia
- warmer than average nights are very likely across Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures nationwide.
New Renewable Generation (Excluding Hydro)
Total renewable generation (wind and solar, including roof-top solar) in January set another new record - 7,521GWh – slightly above last month’s record level. Utility Scale Solar generation was up 3% from December levels and up 14% over the same month last year. Wind generation increased 10% from last month and was also up 10% compared to January 2024.
The following chart shows the monthly energy produced for each of these renewable types since 2017.

The Electricity Futures Market
Futures prices decreased through December in all States, across every calendar year, apart from in Victoria where futures prices were either flat or increased.
In NSW CAL25 was down 8% at $126/MWh, CAL26 was down 1% at $125, while CAL27 also closed down 1% at $123. CAL28 settled at $124 – also down 1%.
Calendar Year Contracts for New South Wales

QLD prices for CY 2025 were down 7% at $113. CAL26 decreased 1% closing at $107, while CAL27 finished down 2.5% at $98. CAL28 traded down 2% at $98.
Calendar Year Contracts for Queensland

VIC futures prices for CAL25 were down 0.5% at $83, CAL26 was up 1% at $77, while CAL27 was up 4% at $73.5. CAL28 traded up 2% at $74.
Calendar Year Contracts for Victoria

SA has less liquidity in the futures markets than other States, so changes tend to be lumpier and less a true reflection of the underlying market. For completeness we have included the graph below.

The Gas Market
Internationally, LNG netback prices ended the month at $19.46/GJ – down 1.5% from last month. Forecast prices for 2025 were down 2% at $19.98/GJ. Forward prices for 2026 were flat at $17.44/GJ. (Note that netback prices are indicative of international prices – they are produced by the ACCC and quoted in Australian dollars. They are net of the estimated costs to convert from pipeline gas in Australia to LNG, hence the term “netback”)

Domestic spot gas prices decreased through January. The following graph shows the 30-day rolling average price at Wallumbilla gas supply hub – ending the month at $13.8/GJ, a 12% decrease from December levels. This is still well below the LNG netback price. Prices are 23% above what they were the same time last year.

Gas storage at the key Iona storage facility rose through January. Storage increased to 19.5PJ – a 23% increase over the month. Storage is close to the average levels we have seen at this time of year for the past 9 years.

LPG is an important fuel for many large energy users, particularly in areas where reticulated natural gas is not available. The contract price of LPG is typically set by international benchmarks such as the Saudi Aramco LPG – normally quoted in US$ per metric tonne.
The following graph shows the Saudi Aramco LPG pricing for the last 4 years as well as forecast pricing for the year ahead. Futures pricing increased again over the last month.

The other main contributing factor to LPG prices in Australia is the exchange rate against the USD. The exchange rate was volatile in January ending the month near where it began - just above 0.62, near the lowest levels seen in recent years. This would tend to push up LPG prices when quoted in AUD.

The Coal Market
The global energy crisis has been as much about coal as it has gas. The war in the Ukraine has driven energy prices, including coal, up. Prices in January fell, ending the month at US$118.5/T – a 5% decrease on the December close. These prices are finally returning to levels close to what we expect to see as shown in the following graph of prices over the last 10 years.

High international coal prices continue to be an important driver of electricity prices especially in the States most reliant on black coal generation – ie QLD and NSW.
Environmental Certificates
The following graph shows environmental certificate spot prices over the last 4 years.

Prices were largely subdued for environmental certificates through January with few changes apart from some falls in spot LGCs and ACCUs. Spot LGCs fell 5% to $30.5 while ACCUs dropped 4% to $35. VEECs were up 1% at $112 while ESCs and STCs were unchanged at $14.25 and 39.85 respectively.
Future dated LGC prices were down in all years apart from CAL 27 which was flat. CAL25 was down 7% at $31.5, while CAL26 decreased by 9% to $25.5. CAL28 also fell by 7% to $19. CAL29 was priced at $18.

About this Report
This energy market summary report provides information on wholesale price trends for all regions within the National Electricity Market (NEM) and environmental scheme certificates.
Please note that all electricity prices are presented as a $ per MWh price and all certificate prices as a $ per certificate price.
All NEM spot prices are published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Futures contract prices are sourced from ASX.
Further information can be found at the locations noted below.
- NEM Spot market – AEMO publishes a range of detailed information which can be found here: https://aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard
- Weather and Climate data – The Bureau of Meteorology publishes a range of weather related information which can be found here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
Disclaimer
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