The National Electricity Market
Wholesale electricity prices in February increased in most NEM States apart from SA and TAS which both fell from high January levels. SA’s volatility reduced in February resulting in a steep fall in average prices – down 63% to $56. TAS had a smaller reduction of 11% to $90. Average prices in other States ranged from the $45 in VIC (up 17%) to $84 in NSW (up 25%).
Electricity Generation Mix
Total grid-scale generation for February decreased by 10.9% from January levels – factoring in the fewer days in February this implies a small increase in operational demand.
Wind and Solar generation both decreased while Gas generation had a notable increase compared to last month.
Gas Generation
Gas generation increased in February – up 2% compared to January. Compared to 12 months ago gas generation was 33% lower than it was in February 2025 – the lowest level seen in February in the last 7 years.
Gas generation was up in NSW and QLD but decreased in other States. NSW was up 2% while QLD was up 28%. VIC fell 39% while SA was down 18%. TAS used no gas at all.
Hydro Generation
Hydro generation decreased 1% in February compared to January levels and was slightly above the average level seen in the last 11 years, for this time of year, as shown below.
Storage in Hydro Tasmania’s lakes continued to decline through February. Storage ended the month at 6,746GWh (47% full), a decrease of 406GWh over the month. This is 10% more than the same time last year and above the maximum level seen at this time of year in the last 11 years, as shown in the following chart.
Snowy Hydro’s storage also decreased through February. Snowy finished the month 44% of full (2,336Gl) – a 4% decrease over the month. Levels remain below the 11-year average for this time of year as shown in the following chart.
Climate outlook overview (from BOM)
The long-range forecast for March to May shows:
- Rainfall is likely to be below average for most of southern Australia, and above average in the north.
- Daytime temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of the southern two-thirds of Australia and parts of far northern Australia.
- Overnight temperatures are likely to very likely to be above average across much of Australia.
New Renewable Generation (Excluding Hydro)
Total renewable generation (wind and solar, including roof-top solar) in February was 7,309GWh – a drop of nearly 17% from last month’s record level and only 6% above the same month last year. Wind generation was down 11% from last month’s level but was 12% more than February 2025. Utility Scale Solar generation was down 18% from January’s level and up 8% over the same month last year.
The following chart shows the monthly energy produced for each of these renewable types since 2017.
The Electricity Futures Market
Futures prices were little changed through February in most States, across every calendar year.
In NSW CAL26 was up 1% at $92, while CAL27 was unchanged 8% at 95.5. CAL28 was down 1% at $94, while CAL29 was down 3% ending the month at $96.
Calendar Year Contracts for New South Wales
QLD prices in CY 2026 were down 2% at $74. CAL27 was down 1% ($80) and CAL28 was down 2.5% ($78). CAL29 ended the month also down 3% at $78.
Calendar Year Contracts for Queensland
VIC futures prices for CAL26 were unchanged at $66, CAL27 was up 1% at $72, while CAL28 was up 2% at $76. CAL29 ended the month unchanged at $80.
Calendar Year Contracts for Victoria
SA has less liquidity in the futures markets than other States, so changes tend to be lumpier and less a true reflection of the underlying market. For completeness we have included the graph below.
Calendar Year Contracts for South Australia
The Gas Market
Internationally, LNG netback prices (as of the 27 Feb) were $13.5/GJ – up 12.5% from last month. Forecast prices were down 3% at $13.22/GJ for 2026 and $11.89/GJ, down 3% for 2027. (Note that netback prices are indicative of international prices – they are produced by the ACCC and quoted in Australian dollars. They are net of the estimated costs to convert from pipeline gas in Australia to LNG, hence the term “netback”)
Domestic spot gas prices fell again in February. The following graph shows the 30-day rolling average price at Wallumbilla gas supply hub – ending the month at $11.3/GJ, down 5% from January levels. This is close to the LNG netback price. Prices are 17% below what they were the same time last year.
Gas storage at the key Iona storage facility increased through February. Storage increased to 20.12PJ – a 19% rise over the month. Storage is now close to the average levels we have seen at this time of year for the past 9 years.
LPG is an important fuel for many large energy users, particularly in areas where reticulated natural gas is not available. The contract price of LPG is typically set by international benchmarks such as the Saudi Aramco LPG price – normally quoted in US$ per metric tonne.
The following graph shows the Saudi Aramco LPG pricing for the last 5 years as well as forecast pricing for the year ahead. Futures pricing were up slightly over the last month.
The other main contributing factor to LPG prices in Australia is the exchange rate against the USD. The exchange rate increased through the month closing at above 0.71. This is higher than we have seen in recent years. This would tend to push down LPG prices when quoted in AUD.
The Coal Market
The global energy crisis has been as much about coal as it has gas. The war in the Ukraine has driven energy prices, including coal, up. Prices in February increased, ending the month at $119/tonne – up 2.5%. These prices are finally returning to levels close to what we expect to see as shown in the following graph of prices over the last 10 years.
International coal prices continue to be an important driver of electricity prices especially in the States most reliant on black coal generation – ie QLD and NSW.
Environmental Certificates
The following graph shows environmental certificate spot prices over the last 5.5 years.
VEEC prices increased a little in February – up 2% to $83. Spot LGCs continued recent falls – down a further 25% to $4. ESCs dropped 1% to $22.6 while STCs were also down 1% at $39.1. ACCUs fell 4% to $36.5.
Future dated LGC prices decreased again in all years. CAL26 fell to $4.35, CAL27 to $4, CAL28 to $3.75, and CAL29 to $3.5. CAL 30 also decreased to $3.5.
About this Report
This energy market summary report provides information on wholesale price trends for all regions within the National Electricity Market (NEM) and environmental scheme certificates.
Please note that all electricity prices are presented as a $ per MWh price and all certificate prices as a $ per certificate price.
All NEM spot prices are published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Futures contract prices are sourced from ASX.
Further information can be found at the locations noted below.
- NEM Spot market – AEMO publishes a range of detailed information which can be found here: https://aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard
- Weather and Climate data – The Bureau of Meteorology publishes a range of weather related information which can be found here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
Disclaimer
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