The National Electricity Market
Wholesale electricity prices in August were largely flat in most States across the NEM, apart from SA which had a 47% fall. Price changes in other States ranged from a 5% fall in QLD up to a 13% increase in VIC. Average prices ranged from the $78 in QLD, up to $125 in TAS.
Electricity Generation Mix
Total grid-scale generation for August decreased by 5.8% from July levels – a small reduction in operational demand likely due to increased roof-top solar generation.
Solar and Gas generation increased significantly while Wind and Coal had large falls compared to the previous month.
Gas Generation
Gas generation increased in August – up 10% compared to July. Compared to 12 months ago gas generation was 3% higher than it was in August 2024.
Gas generation was down in VIC (4%) and SA (9%) but rose in other NEM States. NSW increased 15%, QLD 16%, and TAS 408% (on very low volumes).
Hydro Generation
Hydro generation decreased 2% in August compared to July levels, close to the lowest level seen in the last 10-years, for this time of year, as shown below.
Storage in Hydro Tasmania’s lakes increased in August. Storage ended the month at 5,646GWh (39% full), an increase of 291GWh over the month. This is 6% less than the same time last year and below the average level seen at this time of year in the last 10 years, as shown in the following chart.
Snowy Hydro’s storage increased through August. Snowy finished the month 39% of full (2,075Gl) – a 5% increase over the month. Levels remain well below the 10-year average for this time of year as shown in the following chart.
Climate outlook overview (from BOM)
The long-range forecast for September to November shows:
- Above average rainfall is likely across much of eastern Australia.
- Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average in northern and south-eastern regions, with an increased chance of unusually warm days in the far north and south-east.
- Overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of Australia, with an increased likelihood of unusually warm nights in northern, eastern, and central areas.
New Renewable Generation (Excluding Hydro)
Total renewable generation (wind and solar, including roof-top solar) in August was 6,530GWh – up 1% from last month’s level, and up 11% on the same month last year. Wind generation was down 15% from last month’s record high but was still 9% more than August 2024. Utility Scale Solar generation was up 14% from August’s levels and 16% over the same month last year.
The following chart shows the monthly energy produced for each of these renewable types since 2017.
The Electricity Futures Market
Futures prices were flat or moved up slightly through August in all States, across every calendar year.
In NSW CAL26 was up 1% at $118, while CAL27 was up 1.5% ($115) and CAL28 up 2% ($115.5).
Calendar Year Contracts for New South Wales
QLD prices followed a similar pattern to NSW. CY 2026 was up 1.5% at $101.5. CAL27 was also up 1.5% ($96) and CAL 28 was up 1% ($92).
Calendar Year Contracts for Queensland
VIC futures prices for CAL26 were unchanged at $78, CAL27 was up 0.5% at $75, while CAL28 was up 4% at $78.
Calendar Year Contracts for Victoria
SA has less liquidity in the futures markets than other States, so changes tend to be lumpier and less a true reflection of the underlying market. For completeness we have included the graph below
Calendar Year Contracts for South Australia
The Gas Market
Internationally, LNG netback prices ended the month at $15.64/GJ – down 9% from last month. Forecast prices for 2025 were down 2% at $17.06/GJ. Forward prices for 2026 were also down 9% at $14.75/GJ. (Note that netback prices are indicative of international prices – they are produced by the ACCC and quoted in Australian dollars. They are net of the estimated costs to convert from pipeline gas in Australia to LNG, hence the term “netback”)
Domestic spot gas prices rose slightly in August. The following graph shows the 30-day rolling average price at Wallumbilla gas supply hub – ending the month at $13/GJ, up 1.3% from July levels. This is still below the LNG netback price. Prices are just (3%) below what they were the same time last year.
Gas storage at the key Iona storage facility continued to fall through August. Storage decreased to 10.8PJ – a 19% fall over the month. Storage is close to the lowest levels we have seen at this time of year for the past 9 years.
LPG is an important fuel for many large energy users, particularly in areas where reticulated natural gas is not available. The contract price of LPG is typically set by international benchmarks such as the Saudi Aramco LPG price – normally quoted in US$ per metric tonne.
The following graph shows the Saudi Aramco LPG pricing for the last 4.5 years as well as forecast pricing for the year ahead. Futures pricing were down over the last month and remain trending down through 2026.
The other main contributing factor to LPG prices in Australia is the exchange rate against the USD. The exchange rate hovered around 0.65 for much of August, increasing to 0.654 at the end of the month. This remains near the lowest levels seen in recent years. This would tend to push up LPG prices when quoted in AUD.
The Coal Market
The global energy crisis has been as much about coal as it has gas. The war in the Ukraine has driven energy prices, including coal, up. Prices in August decreased ending the month at US$110/T – a 4% fall over the month. These prices are finally returning to levels close to what we expect to see as shown in the following graph of prices over the last 10 years.
International coal prices continue to be an important driver of electricity prices especially in the States most reliant on black coal generation – ie QLD and NSW.
Environmental Certificates
The following graph shows environmental certificate spot prices over the last 5.5 years.
Spot LGCs rebounded from recent very low prices – up 11% at $12.5. ESCs also continued recent gains, up a further 4% to $23.75 while ACCUs were up 3% to $36.9. VEECs and STCs were unchanged.
Future dated LGC prices increased in closer dated years and fell slightly in later dated years. CAL25 was up 6% at $12.75, while CAL26 increased by 11% to $12.25. CAL27 rose by 25% to $10. CAL28 and CAL29 both decreased by 7% to about $7.
About this Report
This energy market summary report provides information on wholesale price trends for all regions within the National Electricity Market (NEM) and environmental scheme certificates.
Please note that all electricity prices are presented as a $ per MWh price and all certificate prices as a $ per certificate price.
All NEM spot prices are published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Futures contract prices are sourced from ASX.
Further information can be found at the locations noted below.
- NEM Spot market – AEMO publishes a range of detailed information which can be found here: https://aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard
- Weather and Climate data – The Bureau of Meteorology publishes a range of weather related information which can be found here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
Disclaimer
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