The National Electricity Market
Wholesale electricity prices in April increased in all States apart from TAS which was flat. SA increased the most, up 44% to $89/MWh. QLD and VIC also had significant increases, up over 20% to $98.5 and $75 respectively. NSW rose 16% to $104 while TAS was unchanged at $100.
Electricity Generation Mix
Total grid-scale generation for April decreased by 10.5% from March levels. Given that there was 1 less day in April and falling roof-top solar, this corresponds to another significant decrease in underlying demand for the month.
Coal, Wind and Solar generation all decreased significantly. Gas generation was up 18% while Hydro generation increased 7% compared to the previous month.
Gas Generation
Gas generation increased significantly in April – up 18% compared to March. Compared to 12 months ago gas generation was 1% more than it was in April 2024.
Gas generation was up 246% in NSW – its highest level since June last year. SA increased 16% while TAS was up marginally on very small numbers compared to last month. VIC gas generation decreased 51% while SA fell 16%.
Hydro Generation
Hydro generation increased 7% in April compared to March levels, just below the average levels seen in the last 10-years, for this time of year, as shown below.
Storage in Hydro Tasmania’s lakes continued to fall through April. Storage ended the month at 5,230GWh (36% full), a decrease of 361GWh over the month. This is 9% more than the same time last year and remains above the average level seen at this time of year in the last 10 years, as shown in the following chart.
Snowy Hydro’s storage also fell during April. Snowy finished the month 41% of full (2,173Gl) – a 4.8% decrease over the month. Levels remain just below the 10-year average for this time of year as shown in the following chart.
Climate outlook overview (from BOM)
The long-range forecast for May to July shows:
- rainfall is likely to be below average in parts of the south-west, the east, and much of the north, including inland Queensland
- warmer than average days are very likely across most of Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures, particularly across southern Australia
- warmer than average nights are very likely across most of Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures.
New Renewable Generation (Excluding Hydro)
Total renewable generation (wind and solar, including roof-top solar) in April was 5,518GWh – down 15.5% from last month’s level, but up 15% on the same month last year. Utility Scale Solar generation was down 8% from March levels but up 16% over the same month last year. Wind generation decreased 22% from last month but was also up 14% compared to April 2024.
The following chart shows the monthly energy produced for each of these renewable types since 2017.
The Electricity Futures Market
Futures prices were largely flat or increased slightly through April in all States, across every calendar year.
In NSW CAL26 was up 1.5% at $121, while CAL27 and CAL 28 were flat at $120 and $122 respectively.
Calendar Year Contracts for New South Wales
QLD prices followed a similar pattern to NSW. CY 2026 was up 1.5% at $104. CAL27 and CAL 28 were flat at $97 and $94 respectively.
Calendar Year Contracts for Queensland
VIC futures prices for CAL26 were up 3% at $79, CAL27 was up 2% at $76, while CAL28 was up 1% at $76.
Calendar Year Contracts for Victoria
SA has less liquidity in the futures markets than other States, so changes tend to be lumpier and less a true reflection of the underlying market. For completeness we have included the graph below.
Calendar Year Contracts for South Australia
The Gas Market
Internationally, LNG netback prices ended the month at $16.88/GJ – down 8.5% from last month. Forecast prices for 2025 were down 10% at $16.76/GJ. Forward prices for 2026 were also down 10% at $14.71/GJ. (Note that netback prices are indicative of international prices – they are produced by the ACCC and quoted in Australian dollars. They are net of the estimated costs to convert from pipeline gas in Australia to LNG, hence the term “netback”)
Domestic spot gas prices decreased in April. The following graph shows the 30-day rolling average price at Wallumbilla gas supply hub – ending the month at $13/GJ, down 5% from March levels. This is still well below the LNG netback price. Prices are 12% above what they were the same time last year.
Gas storage at the key Iona storage facility rose marginally through April. Storage increased to 24.2PJ – a 0.7% increase over the month. Storage is close to the maximum levels we have seen at this time of year for the past 9 years.
LPG is an important fuel for many large energy users, particularly in areas where reticulated natural gas is not available. The contract price of LPG is typically set by international benchmarks such as the Saudi Aramco LPG price – normally quoted in US$ per metric tonne.
The following graph shows the Saudi Aramco LPG pricing for the last 4 years as well as forecast pricing for the year ahead. Futures pricing were down over the last month and are trending down through 2026.
The other main contributing factor to LPG prices in Australia is the exchange rate against the USD. The exchange rate was volatile during April dropping as low as 0.60 but closing near its monthly high of 0.64. This remains near the lowest levels seen in recent years. This would tend to push up LPG prices when quoted in AUD.
The Coal Market
The global energy crisis has been as much about coal as it has gas. The war in the Ukraine has driven energy prices, including coal, up. Prices in April fell to a low of US$93/T before picking up to end the month at US$98/T – a 2% fall over the month. These prices are finally returning to levels close to what we expect to see as shown in the following graph of prices over the last 10 years.
International coal prices continue to be an important driver of electricity prices especially in the States most reliant on black coal generation – ie QLD and NSW.
Environmental Certificates
The following graph shows environmental certificate spot prices over the last 5 years.
VEECs had a large fall in April – down 13% to $94 – their lowest level in a year. Spot LGCs also fell a further 11% to $20. ACCUs increased 6% to $35 while ESCs were up 5% at 15.25. STCs were unchanged at $39.9.
The steep decline in future dated LGC prices seen in recent months continued in April. CAL25 was down 11% at $20.5, while CAL26 decreased by 16% to $17. CAL27 fell by 9% to $13.4 while CAL28 fell 23% to 9.8. CAL29 fell 21% to $9.3. Prices are down around 60% from their peaks 12 months ago.
About this Report
This energy market summary report provides information on wholesale price trends for all regions within the National Electricity Market (NEM) and environmental scheme certificates.
Please note that all electricity prices are presented as a $ per MWh price and all certificate prices as a $ per certificate price.
All NEM spot prices are published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Futures contract prices are sourced from ASX.
Further information can be found at the locations noted below.
- NEM Spot market – AEMO publishes a range of detailed information which can be found here: https://aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard
- Weather and Climate data – The Bureau of Meteorology publishes a range of weather related information which can be found here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
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